KCR's Fedaral front plan on hold

Friday’s no-confidence motion against the NDA government has proved that forging any front by non-BJP parties will not be possible before the 2019 elections. The debate and voting on the motion showed the utter lack of unity among non-BJP parties and lack of consensus on who should lead the front in the event of its formation.  The voting numbers made it clear that there were wide differences among regional parties.  The BJP was expecting 316 votes in its favour and 146 against, based on the strength of various parties in the Lok Sabha. In the event, it secured 325 votes while the Opposition ended up at 126, with major regional parties staying away from voting. 

TRS president and Chief Minister K. Chandra-sekhar Rao who had tried to forge a Federal Front of regional parties against the Congress and the BJP is said to have deferred his plans in the wake of Friday’s developments and will give it a thought only after the 2019 election results are out. The TRS itself stayed away from voting against the BJP. The AIADMK voted in favour of the BJP, while the BJD staged a walkout even before the debate, exposing the chinks in Opposition unity.

Trinamul president and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee on the other hand is giving signals about forging an alternative front which she wants to lead. She expects to hold a massive show-of-strength rally in Kolkata in January to underline her claim. After announcing his Federal Front plan in March, Mr Rao had gone to Kolkata, Chennai and Bengaluru to meet Ms Banerjee, DMK working president M.K. Stalin and JDS leaders H.D. Deve Gowda and H.D. Kumaraswamy. He had planned to visit Bhubaneswar to meet BJD president and Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik seeking support for the front. This was deferred after Mr Deve Gowda, who visited Mr Rao in Pragathi Bhavan recently, told him that no front would be possible before the elections due to lack of consensus on who should lead it; a front could be considered only after the election results.

Mr Gowda had said the “Karnataka model” of a post-poll alliance could be worked out if both the BJP and the Congress failed to get the required majority and regional parties can be brought together to form government at the Centre with the support of either Congress or BJP depending on the situation.

With the outcome of Friday’s vote, Mr Rao feels that Mr Gowda’s predictions had come true.

As per the BJP's strategy, it should have got 316 votes: BJP 273, Shiv Sena 18, Lok Jana Shakti 6, Shiromani Akali Dal 4, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party 3, Apna Dal 3, JDU 2, PMK 1, NR Congress 1, Swabhimaan Paksha 1, Sikkim Democratic Front 1, NDP 1, NPP 1 and Independent 1. The BJP gained despite the Shiv Sena abstaining from the voting because it secured the support of 37 MPs from the AIADMK.

The Opposition parties were expecting 146 votes: Congress 48, Trinamul Congress 34, TD 16, CPM 9, NCP 7, SP 4, AAP 4, RJD 4, AIDUF 3, INLD 2, IUML 2, JMM 2, Independent 2, MIM 1, NC 1, PDP 1, JDS 1, CPI 1 and RSP 1. The Opposition got only 126.